影子银行、金融加速器与经济波动

SHADOW BANKING,FINANCIAL ACCELERATOR AND ECONOMIC FLUCTUATION

在我国信贷市场“二元”结构下,影子银行有效填补了麦克米伦缺口并且深入渗透到宏观经济运行中。在金融加速器理论框架下建立VAR模型,探讨影子银行对经济波动的影响。研究发现:影子银行发展会放大外生冲击对宏观经济的影响,呈现“小冲击,大波动”的特点,但金融加速器效应会在后期衰退;通货膨胀刺激影子银行扩张资产端,后者会通过信贷渠道缓解中小企业的融资约束,从而加快经济复苏并掀起新一轮通货膨胀;产出和投资下降使企业资产净值缩水,在资产负债表渠道下,影子银行过度惜贷的行为加剧了宏观经济下滑趋势。因此,治理影子银行应把握好节奏力度,重点优化金融资源的配置结构,从源头化解其对宏观经济造成的不确定性风险。

Under the dual structure of China’s credit market, shadow banking has effectively filled the Macmillan gap and deeply penetrated the macro-economic operation. The Vector Autoregressive Model is constructed under the framework of financial accelerator theory to examine the influence of shadow banking on the economic fluctuation. Findings are listed as follows. Firstly, the development of shadow banking can intensify the influence of exogenous impacts on the macro-economy, which shows small impact but great fluctuation. However, the effect of financial accelerator could decline in later stages. Secondly, inflation will stimulate shadow bank to expand its assets which can ease the financial restraint of SMEs via bank credit channel, and speed up economic recovery with a new round of inflation. Thirdly, the decreasing output and investment can shrink the net asset value of enterprises. And the excessive restraint of shadow bank lending via balance-sheet channel can exacerbate the macro-economic decline. Therefore, the administration of shadow banking should be controlled with the right pace and intensity. The allocation structure of financial resources should be optimized, which can eliminate the risk of uncertainty in macro-economy from its source.