基于SEIRS的建设工程质量风险传递模型及仿真研究

Modeling and Simulation of Quality Risk Transmission of Construction Project Based on SEIRS

工程建设过程、从业人员专业水平和信息存在较为突出的碎片化现象,导致了工程质量风险的传递。为揭示平行承发包模式下建设工程质量风险的传递效应和放大效应,利用传染病模型中的动力学原理,综合考虑工程质量风险传递的影响因素,构建了SEIRS的建设工程质量风险传递模型。仿真研究结果表明,建设工程在质量风险传递过程中存在阈值;质量风险传递阈值h≥1时,在质量风险传递阻碍因素的作用下,风险逐步衰减直至消失;质量风险传递阈值h<1时,在质量风险传递促进因素的作用下,风险会稳定存在于建设工程中,甚至危害工程的整体质量。研究结论为政府实现由直接监管向间接监管、由事前监管向事中事后监管的转变等提供理论支撑。

Since the construction process, the professional level of employees and information of construction project have a prominent fragmentation phenomenon leading to the quality risk transmission. In order to reveal the transfer effect and amplification effect of quality risk in construction project,based on the dynamic principle of infectious disease model, considering comprehensively the factors of the quality risk transmission, we establish a SEIRS model of the quality risk transmission. The simulation research shows that there is a threshold in the quality risk transmission process of construction project. When the threshold is h≥1, the risk gradually attenuates until it disappears under the action of barrier factors. When the threshold is h<1, the risk will be stable in construction projects and even endanger the overall quality under the action of promoting factors.This paper can provide theoretical support for the government to realize the transition from direct supervision to indirect supervision, from prior supervision to process-oriented supervision.