基于CA-MarKov模型的县域土地利用时空演变分析及预测研究

Research on Land Use Changes and Prediction in County Scale Based on CA-Markov Model

基于2005、2010、2015年Landsat OLI/TM土地利用分类数据,依托土地利用转移矩阵、土地利用幅度变化模型、土地利用速度变化模型,辅以CA-MarKov未来土地利用预测模型,探讨干旱区渭库绿洲土地利用时空演变规律,预测未来土地利用类型。结果表明:2005—2015年耕地、水域和建设用地面积增加,林地、草地未利用地面积减少;各地类相互转化中耕地、林地和建设用地绝对值变化幅度大,变化速度较快;预测模型精度0.7829,能有效揭示研究区时空演变趋势,在自然影响因素、气象因素影响下2005—2015年变化趋势与2005—2025年土地利用变化趋势较一致。

Based on the land use classification data of LandsatOLI/TM in 2005,2010 and 2015,relying on land use transfer matrix,land use change model,land use speed change model,supplemented by CA-Markov future land use prediction model,the temporal and spatial evolution of land use and the prediction of future land use types in Ugan-Kuche River Deita Oasis were discussed.The results showed that:During 2005-2015,the farmland,water area and construction land area increased,while the unused land area of forest land and grassland decreased;the transformation among different classes,the absolute value of farmland,forest land and construction land changed greatly and rapidly;the accuracy of the prediction model is 0.7829,it can effectively reveal the temporal and spatial evolution trend of the study area,under the influence of natural and meteorological factors the change trend of 2005-2015 is consistent with that of 2005-2025.