从《中导条约》的失效看未来国际军控走向

Analysis on the trends of international arms control after theexpiration of the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty

《美苏消除两国中程导弹和中短程导弹条约》的失效重创了本就脆弱的国际军控体系,对美俄战略稳定和全球军事安全带来消极影响,国际军控合作和全球军事安全迫切需要重构新的军控体系。本文立足当前国际军控现状,在分析美俄“退约”背后各方战略考量及国际军控面临的挑战,如“美国优先”理念下的霸权主义和单边主义、国际军控体系自身的脆弱性和局限性和新军事革命给全球安全增添新的变量的基础上,提出了“构建人类命运共同体”理念凝聚全球安全共识、以大国责任和义务为基础构建多层次军控体系和以多边军控体系循序推进国际军控进程等措施和建议,以期为推动国际军控合作,建立更为公平、合理、有效的国际军控体系做出贡献。

The fragile system of international arms control has suffered a severe damage as a result of the expiration of the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty,bringing negative impacts to strategic stability between the US and Russia as well as the global military security.The international arms control cooperation and global military security face an urgent need to reconstruct a new arms control system.Based on the international arms control situation,this paper analyzes the strategic considerations of all parties after the withdrawal from the treaty of the US and Russia,the practical problems in front of the international arms control including the hegemony represented by the concept of“US comes first”and unilateralism,and the fragility and limitations of the international arms control system itself,as well as the new challenges facing global security brought by the new military revolution.Then we propose to“build a community with a shared future for mankind”for a shared understanding of global security,to construct a multi-level arms control system based on major power responsibility and liability,and to advance the international arms control process by a multilateral framework,so as to promote international cooperation for the goal of a fair,reasonable and effective international arms control system.