中美贸易战何以影响制造业高质量发展

How the Sino US trade war affects the high-quality development of manufacturing industry

高级科研人才对制造业高质量发展具有重大的战略价值,然而中美贸易战何以影响制造业集聚高级科研人才却是鲜有研究的重大理论与现实问题。本文利用2008年-2014年《全国创新调查企业数据库》并结合中国政府实施的技术引进鼓励政策文件构建工具变量,研究中美贸易战美国对华技术封锁究竟对中国制造企业集聚高级科研人才具有何种影响效应。主要发现为:第一,对外技术引进下降有利于C_Min、C_Mid型制造企业集聚高级科研人才;第二,对外技术引进下降对B_Max型制造企业集聚高级科研人才具有抑制作用;第三,中美贸易战美国对华技术封锁对"抢人大战"城市集聚高级科研人才提供了战略契机。本文为中国各级政府妥善处置美国对华技术封锁以及为"抢人大战"城市制定合宜的人才引进政策提供了经验数据层面的参考价值。

The agglomeration of advanced R&D talents has great strategic value for the high-quality development of manufacturing industry in China.However,how the Sino US trade war affects the agglomeration of advanced R&D talents in manufacturing industry is a major theoretical and practical problem.Base on a big micro enterprise data named"innovation survey enterprise database",this paper constructs instrumental variables with the policy documents of technology introduction by the Chinese government,and studies how the Sino US trade war affects the agglomeration of advanced R&D talents in manufacturing enterprises of China.The main findings are as follows:Firstly,the decline of foreign technology introduction is beneficial for manufacturing enterprises of C_Min or C_Mid to improve the agglomeration of advanced R&D talents;Secondly,the decline of foreign technology introduction has a restraining effect on the agglomeration of advanced R&D talents of manufacturing enterprises of B_Max;Thirdly,the Sino US trade war is beneficial to improve the agglomeration of advanced R&D talents in"Talent Snatch War"Cities objectively.This paper provides valuable reference for the Chinese government to properly handle the U.S.technological blockade against China and to formulate appropriate policies for talent introduction in"Talent Snatch War"cities.