基于复杂网络模型的城市综合管廊PPP项目风险传递过程研究

Risk transfer process in urban comprehensive corridor PPP project based on complex network model

从复杂网络视角出发,利用案例分析法识别出城市综合管廊PPP项目的38个风险要素,将风险要素作为网络点,并将风险要素之间的关系作为网络边,构建复杂网络模型;通过分析3类复杂网络参数,阐明城市综合管廊PPP项目的风险传递过程;基于十堰市城市综合管廊PPP项目的实例,找到8个影响风险传递的核心因素,为决策者提供风险控制和防范的依据.研究表明:实现风险防控需要控制直接风险并切断间接引发风险的传递路径,通过控制风险核心因素的方式有效引导风险传递.以上研究从理论上发现了复杂项目风险传递的突破口,在实践上探索了行之有效的复杂项目风险控制模式.

From the perspective of complex network,the case analysis method was used to identify 38 risk elements of the urban comprehensive corridor PPP projects primarily;the 38 risk elements were used as network points,and the relationship between risk elements was taken as network edges to construct the complex network model.By analyzing three kinds of complex network parameters,the risk transfer process of the urban comprehensive corridor PPP projects was expounded.Based on the case study of urban comprehensive corridor PPP project in Shiyan city,eight core factors affecting risk transmission were found,which provided the basis for decision makers to control and prevent risks.Results show that the realization of risk prevention and control needs to control the direct risk and cut off the transmission path of indirect risk,thus to guide the risk transmission effectively by controlling the core factors of risk.The breakthrough of risk transmission of complex projects is found in theory,and the effective risk control mode of complex projects is explored in practice.