迁入潜能与城市增长

Immigration Potential and Urban Growth

本文结合城市增长理论和人口迁移理论的观点,构建了迁入潜能指标,以此衡量本地区及其他地区人口向城市迁入的潜在供给水平,并结合综合效用指标,共同解释中国快速城镇化进程中的城市增长问题。研究结果发现:随着中国城市规模增长,城市规模体系不断优化,规模位序系数逐渐接近世界平均水平;迁入潜能指标能够很好地解释城市增长差异,对迁入潜能指标的分解发现基期城市规模比按距离加权的本地区和其他地区人口规模的促进作用更大;收入水平和城市环境通过影响综合效用进而影响迁入意愿和城市增长,影响系数略低于迁入潜能;城市行政等级与沿海城市虚拟变量均与城市增长正相关。未来推进城镇化进程中,各个城市可以通过加强对其迁入潜能的考察,提高城市人口预测和规划的科学性,制定合理的城镇化战略。

Integrating the theory of urban growth and population migration, this article constructs the index immigration potential to measure the potential urban population growth supplied by the city and the other region. Then this article studies China’s urban growth in the process of rapid urbanization employing a model including the immigration potential and the comprehensive utility. The results show that with the growth of China city, city scale system continuous optimizing, and the rank-scale coefficient gradually close to the average level in the world. The immigration potential index can well explain the differences of the urban growth, and the decomposition of the gravity potential index show that the contribution of the city size in the base year to urban growth is greater than the size of the population in the city and the other region weighted by the distance. The income levels and the amenities can also contribute the city growth through influencing the city’s comprehensive utility, but the influences are slightly lower than the immigration potential. The dummy variables the level of the city administrative and coastal cities can improve the city growth. In the future of China’s urbanization, we need to inspect the immigration potential, scientifically make the urban population forecasting and planning, and take a reasonable urbanization strategy.