中亚“伊斯兰国”恐怖活动犯罪动向及影响

The Trends and Effects of Terrorist Crimes in Islamic States in Central Asia

"伊斯兰国"在叙伊战场全面溃败以后的东扩战略,对中亚、中国等国家和地区的安全构成威胁。中亚"伊斯兰国"的恐怖犯罪动向呈现阶层多元,职业多样,活动网络多中心与分散化;活动频繁,方式与目标多样,死伤人数下降;极端思想分层渗透,传播频繁且隐秘;转移、回流人员活动频繁,恐袭技术含量提高等特点。中亚地区意识形态领域的斗争愈发激烈,转移、回流的恐怖分子实施恐怖犯罪活动危害当地的安全与稳定,给中亚地区安全带来一定压力,对中国的意识形态的建设、能源安全的发展及"一带一路"倡议的实施等带来一定的影响。

The eastward expansion strategy of the"Islamic States"after their complete defeat in Syria and Iraq poses a threat to the security of Central Asia,China and other regions.The"Islamic States"in Central Asia feature a terrorist trend with diversified classes,occupations,network-based multi-centers and decentralized network activities,frequent activities,diversified approaches and targets,decrease in the number of casualties,permeated extreme ideas,frequent and secret spread.frequent movement of transferred and returned personnel,and high-technical attacks.The increasingly-intense ideological struggle in central Asia and the terrorist crimes committed by transferred and returned terrorists pose certain pressure on the local stability and the security of central Asia as well as related impacts on China’s ideology,energy security and the Belt-and-Road initiative.