基于服务可靠性的公交到站时刻表编排与评价

Arrangement and evaluation of bus arrival timetable based on service reliability

建立了利用公交历史数据进行公交到站时刻表编排的优化模型,以提升乘客按时刻表出行的搭乘成功率,减少等待时间,改善出行体验。首先,提出了服务可靠性的概念来表示乘客根据时刻表候车能成功搭乘的概率,并基于此引入了历史百分位到站时刻作为参考时刻;然后综合考虑等待时间、运行时间等约束条件,以最大化服务可靠性构建了到站时刻表编排模型,并利用乘客搭乘成功率、平均等待时间等指标来对模型进行评估。最后,选取广州市某公交线路进行了实例验证,并与传统方法进行了对比分析。结果表明,模型编排的到站时刻表能明显提高乘客的搭乘率,减少乘客平均等待时间。

An optimization model of bus arrival timetable utilizing historical data is proposed to increase the riding success ratio,reduce the waiting time,and improve the level of service of buses.The concept of service reliability is introduced to indicate the probability that the riders successfully take the bus according to the timetable,and the historical percentile arrival time is proposed as the control points;then the model to maximize service reliability with the constraints conditions of rider waiting time and bus running time is proposed,and the riding success ratio and waiting time are employed to evaluate the performance of the proposed method.A case study of a bus route in Guangzhou is presented,and the results show that the proposed model can produce a timetable with higher riding success ratio and less waiting time,comparing with traditional method.