财政压力下消费券的杠杆设计——兼论刺激消费的资金来源问题

Leverage Design of Consumption Coupons under the Financial Pressure and the Funding Source for Promoting Consumption

针对财政压力下刺激消费的资金来源问题,本文根据转移支付的拉弗曲线,认为政府可以将部分财政收入以消费券的形式补贴居民消费,通过合理设计消费券的杠杆,确定消费券中政府补贴和居民支付的合理比例,能够使得新增税收完全弥补政府先前的转移支付,从而既刺激了消费,又保证了财政收入。本文通过对这一假说的阐述,构建了消费券最低杠杆的估算模型,并基于中国投入产出数据,测算了消费券中应设置的最低杠杆。研究发现,当消费券中政府补贴和居民支付的平均比例为1:5.54时,政府转移支付的资金既能促进消费,又能使得新增税收完全弥补政府先前的转移支付,从而在财政压力下解决了刺激消费的资金来源问题。

To solve the problem of the fund source under the financial pressure,based on the Laffer curve of transfer payment,this paper suggests that the government can transfer part of the government revenue to the households in the form of consumption coupons to stimulate consumption,and then design the leverage structure of consumption coupons reasonably,so that the industry’s new output driven by consumption and the corresponding increased tax revenue can make up for the revenue of the government’s previous transfer expenditure.Firstly,the paper expounds this theory and proves its validity.Secondly,it constructs the estimation model of the lowest leverage ratio in the consumption coupons.Finally,based on the input-output data of China,it calculates the lowest leverage ratio in the consumption coupons.It is found that when the average ratio of government expenditure and resident expenditure in the consumption coupon is 1׃5.54,government transfer expenditure can not only promote consumption,but also fully make up for the previous transfer expenditure through the increased tax revenue,so as to solve the financial pressure of the government.