增长的极限:论能源收益递减效应对社会发展的影响

The Limits to Growth:the Impact of Diminishing Returns in Energy Production on Social Development

相较于能源资源的储量,能源产业的边际收益递减效应对社会发展的制约具有更强的确定性,且其表现形式取决于能源体系的运行模式。在生物能源体系中,由于农业是主要能源生产部门,这一效应表现为人口增长的同时土地边际收益的逐渐降低。在化石能源体系中,随着能量来源变为采掘业,能源供给得以摆脱人口制约;但矿藏质量的下降使能源生产中仍需要面对边际收益的降低。在可再生能源体系中,随着主要能源生产部门变为制造业,技术进步与规模效应将有望实现能源生产中的收益递增。但在较低的功率密度下,随着优质土地资源的逐渐耗尽,该产业边际收益的降低最终也将不可避免。对能源产业的边际收益递减效应的分析是在“动态资源观”中对社会发展极限的有益探讨。通过革新能源体系打破能源收益率的持续下降趋势,则可看成是从能源生产角度对可持续发展问题的新诠释。此外,化石燃料能源收益率的不断降低已使得寻找替代能源成为当务之急,但可再生能源较低的能源收益率使之难以在短时内胜任这一任务。

compared with energy reserves,the effect of diminishing marginal returns of energy production is a more definite constraint on social development,and its manifestation is dependent on the way the energy system works.In a bio-energy system in which agriculture produces most of the en⁃ergy,this effect is manifested by an increase of population on the one hand,and a gradual decrease of the marginal land income on the other.In a fossil energy system,as extractive industries become the major source of energy,energy supply can be freed from population constraints.However,the decline of mineral quality makes it impossible to avoid the decrease of marginal returns in energy production.In the renewable energy system,as manufacturing industry became the major source of energy,tech⁃nological progress and scale effect are expected to achieve increasing returns in energy production.However,at a lower power density,with the gradual depletion of high-quality land resources,it is inevitable that the marginal returns of the renewable energy industry will eventually decrease.The a⁃nalysis of this effect is a beneficial discussion on the restricting factors of social development in the“dynamic resource view”.And breaking the declining trend of the rate of return on energy investment through innovation of energy system can be seen as a new interpretation of sustainable development from the perspective of energy production.In addition,the continuous reduction in the Energy Return on Investment of fossil energy has made the search for alternative energy sources a top priority,but the low Energy Return on Investment of renewable energy makes it difficult to meet this goal in a short pe⁃riod of time.