输电线路冰害年故障率研究分析

Research and analysis of annual fault rate of ice damage for transmission lines

针对冰害所导致的输电线路故障问题,研究分析了区域输电线路年故障率。采用适用于气候极值概率分析的皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布拟合年覆冰极值,得到覆冰极值分布;基于金属形变理论,构建条件覆冰厚度下的线路故障概率模型;综合得到区域输电线路年故障率分布,并采用遗传算法对其参数进行估计。算例分析验证了所提方法的合理有效性,其结果表明:皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布适用于覆冰极值的拟合;基于金属形变理论的线路冰害故障概率模型可真实反映线路的冰害故障可能性;综合得到的区域输电线路年故障率分布可应用于综合分析区域输电线路的冰害故障。

Aiming at the transmission line fault caused by ice damage,the annual failure rate of regional lines is studied and analyzed.Firstly,Pearson-III distribution suitable for climatic extremum probability analysis is used to fit the annual icing extremum,and the distribution of icing extremum is obtained.Secondly,based on the theory of metal deformation,the probability model of line failure under condition of icing thickness is constructed.Finally,the annual fault rate distribution of regional lines is synthesized,and genetic algorithm is adopted to estimate the parameters.An example is given to verify the validity of the proposed method.The results show that the Pearson-III distribution is suitable for the fitting of icing extremum,the probability model based on metal deformation theory can truly reflect the possibility of icing fault,and the annual failure rate distribution of regional lines can be used to analyze the icing fault situation of regional lines.