混凝土坝健康状态态势诊断方法

Tendency diagnostic method of the health state of concrete dam

混凝土坝受到水文、地质、环境及不可控因素的累积影响,易出现不同程度的老化、服役性能衰减甚至恶化等问题。这些问题若不及时被发现并有效解决,将严重影响混凝土坝的健康,因此亟待开展混凝土坝健康状态诊断方法的研究。以往常基于统计分析的方法,通过拟定监测效应量诊断指标来诊断大坝健康状态,但方法存在人为假定及物理意义不明确问题,影响了诊断的质量和客观性。针对上述问题,本文提出态势诊断方法,该方法从表征混凝土坝健康状态监测效应量时空变化维度出发,构建大坝状态转异面板数据分析模型,用于确定健康状态可能恶化的不利工况及发生的时间,并基于灰色关联理论和最大熵理论,建立混凝土坝健康状态影响因素与不利工况间的灰色投影关系,提出识别疑似存在健康问题的阈值确定方法,据此实现混凝土坝健康状态诊断。

Concrete dams are affected by the accumulation of hydrological,geological,environmental and uncontrollable factors,and are prone to various degrees of aging,dam structure performance attenuation or even deterioration.If these problems are not found in time and solved effectively,They will seriously affect the health state of concrete dam.Therefore,it is urgent to carry out the research on the diagnosis method of concrete dam health state.A commonly used method is to diagnose concrete dam health state by draw⁃ing up the diagnostic index of monitoring effect quantity based on statistical analysis.However,This meth⁃od has the problem of artificial assumptions and the physical meaning of index fusion process is not clear,which affects the quality and objectivity of concrete dam health state diagnosis.In view of the above prob⁃lems,a tendency diagnostic method for diagnosing the health state of concrete dam is put forward.Based on the spatio-temporal variation dimension of monitoring effect quantity of concrete dam health state,the panel data analysis model to identify dam behavior fault is constructed,which can determine the unfavor⁃able condition that lead to concrete dam health state deterioration and the occurrence time.Based on the grey correlation and maximum entropy theories,the grey projection relationship between influencing factors of concrete dam health state and the unfavorable condition is established,and a threshold determination method for identifying suspected concrete dam health state problems is proposed,which realizes the diagno⁃sis of concrete dam health state.