经济政策不确定性、政府隐性担保与企业创新持续性

Economic Policy Uncertainty,Government Implicit Guarantee and the Persistence of Firm Innovation

以2008~2016年制造业上市公司为研究样本,探讨经济政策不确定性对企业创新持续性的影响,并从产权和财政补贴两个维度实证分析政府隐性担保在其中的作用机制。研究显示:经济政策不确定性的上升会延缓企业投资决策和加剧企业外部融资约束,从而抑制了企业创新持续性;政府隐性担保对平滑企业创新投入波动有重要作用,且这种作用与金融市场化程度密切相关;在金融市场化程度越低的区域,政府隐性担保削弱经济政策不确定性对创新持续性的抑制作用就越显著。故政府在调整现行经济政策刺激经济增长的同时,也要关注其引发的政策不确定性对企业创新持续性产生的负面影响,深化金融市场改革,释放创新活力。

Taking the manufacturing listed companies from 2008 to 2016 as a research sample,the study discusses the impact of economic policy uncertainty on enterprise innovation persistence and empirically analyzes the mechanism of government implicit guarantees from two dimensions of property and financial subsidy.The results show that economic policy uncertainty delays corporate investment decisions and exacerbates external financing constraints,which in turn inhibits the persistence of innovation.Implicit guarantee has an important role in smoothing the volatility of innovation investment,and this role is closely related to the degree of financial marketization.The lower the degree of financial marketization,the more significant the inhibitory effect of implicit guarantee on the persistence of innovation.Therefore,while adjusting the current economic policy to stimulate economic growth,the government should also pay attention to the negative impact of its policy uncertainty on the persistence of firm innovation,deepen financial reform,and release innovation vitality.