基于贝叶斯网络的机动岸舰导弹兵力作战效能评估

Effectiveness Evaluation of Mobile Coast-Ship Missile Forces Based on Bayesian Network

当前机动岸舰导弹(以下简称机动岸导)兵力在近海攻防作战中的重要性日益凸显,对在近似实战条件下评估其作战效能提出了现实需求。论文在系统分析机动岸导兵力作战特点及流程基础上,选取对海突击能力、战场生存能力等极具机动岸导兵力特点的效能影响因素构建评价指标体系,以贝叶斯网络理论为基础建立了机动岸导兵力作战效能评价模型,并使用贝叶斯工具Netica对该模型进行了实例仿真分析,验证了该模型的可行性。

At present,the importance of mobile coast-to-ship missile force in offshore offensive and defensive operations has become increasingly prominent,which puts forward a realistic demand for evaluating its operational effectiveness under the approxi⁃mate actual combat conditions.On the basis of systematically analyzing the operational charac-teristics and processes of mobile shore guidance forces,this paper selects the factors that influence the effectiveness of mobile shore guidance forces,such as sea as⁃sault capability and battlefield survivability,and builds an evaluation index system.Based on Bayesian network theory,the opera⁃tional effectiveness evaluation model of mobile shore guidance forces is established,and the Bayesian network theory is used to eval⁃uate the operational effectiveness of mobile shore guidance forces.The model is simulated and analyzed by Netica,which verifies the feasibility of the model.