第三个奇迹:中国-东盟命运共同体建设进程及展望

The Third Miracle:The Construction Process and Future Prospect of China-ASEAN Community of Shared Future

2021年是中国与东盟建立对话关系30周年。近30年来,中国与东盟关系实现了从建立对话关系到战略伙伴关系,再到共建命运共同体的共同演化。中国与东盟国家在双边层面、东盟组织层面以及在东亚合作框架内,形成了多元复合的合作局面。虽然南海问题长期难解,但基本保持在可控范围。中国与东盟面向和平与繁荣的制度性合作升级,逆转了冷战期间中国与该地区的对抗、冲突,甚至战争局面,堪称奇迹。中国与东盟在后冷战时代所创造的总体上“和平繁荣”局面,根源于各自的正向发展与良性互动,也就是“东盟奇迹”和“中国奇迹”的融合共进。“东盟奇迹”是指东盟成立50多年来所创建的“地区和平生态系统”马凯硕,孙合记.东盟奇迹[M].翟崑,王丽娜,等,译,北京:北京大学出版社,2017:41~44.,“中国奇迹”是指中国40多年来的改革开放与和平发展。因此,以中国-东盟命运共同体为标志的双方关系的良性发展,就是本文所提的“第三个奇迹”。翟崑.探索后冷战时代东南亚地区的演进之道[J].东南亚研究,2019,(6).本文的立意是探究第三个奇迹何以形成,受何制约,以及如何维护其良性发展。主要结论如下:第一,中国-东盟命运共同体是双方关系在后冷战时代的提质升级,是中国人类命运共同体建设与东盟共同体建设这两个战略体系的对接。第二,中国-东盟命运共同体建设本质上是双方制度化合作的延续和升级,从区域内外比较来看,取得了不错的成效。第三,中国和东盟之所以能克服障碍并保持升级合作,是因为双方借势后冷战时代国际战略格局演变,创造性地克服内外合作困境,促进了地区系统的优化。第四,中国-东盟命运共同体的发展也面临体系性、结构性和策略性挑战,面临天花板效应,但仍有发展空间,其共建方向应该是“通而不统”,以“通”(互联互通)而不是以“统”(一体化或结盟)为目标,追求多元复合、四通八达、多方舒适的制度化合作。

The coming year 2021 will mark the 30th anniversary of the dialogic relationship between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN).Over the past 30 years,China-ASEAN relations have made big strides from the establishment of dialogic partnership to the strategic partnership for peace and prosperity,and finally to the construction of a community of shared future.China and ASEAN countries have worked together for regional peace,stability and prosperity at the bilateral and organizational level as well as within the framework of East Asian cooperation.Though the South China Sea issue has long remained intricate,yet with efforts it has basically been kept under control.Rooted in China’s and ASEAN’s development and interaction between the“ASEAN miracle”and the“China miracle”,the increasingly deepened institutional cooperation between China and ASEAN can also be called a miracle,which has reversed the confrontation,conflict,and even war-like situation between the two sides during the Cold War.While the“ASEAN miracle”refers to the regional peace-targeted ecosystem created by ASEAN over the past 50 years,the“China miracle”refers to China’s reform and opening-up and peaceful development over the past 40 years.This paper regards the development of China-ASEAN relations marked by China-ASEAN Community of Shared Future as the Third Miracle,and aims to explore its generation,constraints and future development.The main conclusions are as follows:first,China-ASEAN Community of Shared Future is the upgraded version of China-ASEAN partnership in the post-Cold War era and the strategic integration of China’s Community of Shared Future for Mankind and ASEAN Community.Second,China-ASEAN Community of Shared Future is essentially the continuation and deepening of their institutional cooperation,and performs noticeably well compared with other regions.Third,China and ASEAN are able to continuously overcome obstacles and promote cooperation because they have taken advantage of the international strategic pattern after the Cold War and creatively pull through internal and external difficulties through optimizing the regional system.Fourth,the development of China-ASEAN Community of Shared Future also faces systemic,structural and strategic challenges as well as the ceiling effect,but there is still room for further development.The construction of China-ASEAN Community of Shared Future should aim at promoting connectivity but not integration or alliance,in pursuit of diversified,complex and cozy institutional cooperation between China and ASEAN.