中国私营企业主多代流动的分源模式

The Divergence Model:Multi-generational Mobility of Private Entrepreneurs in China

中国私营企业主已进入代际传承的高峰期,但多数相关研究仍囿于“父-子”两代范式。通过对2016年中国私营企业调查(CPES)截面数据的分析,本文尝试检验私营企业主三代职业地位的多代流动效应。分析表明:(1)第三代的职业地位虽然呈现多样化趋势,但与第二代创业前最后职业地位有着显著相关;(2)私营企业主的地位流动呈现“祖-子”和“父-子”关联并行的局面多代流动效应不仅存在,而且在第一代为市场经营者家庭中更强;(3)职业地位的多代流动效应在年轻世代中呈现强化趋势,而体制地位效应则趋向弱化。这种社会流动的分源模式及其未来发展将对商业精英的地位再生产、阶层闭合的程度和中国私营经济的可持续性产生实质性影响。

Chinese private entrepreneurs are entering the peak time for generational inheritance.Based on data from CPES 2016,this article uses a national level dataset to analyze the multi-generational mobility of Chinese private entrepreneurs in terms of their occupational positions.The paper presents the following findings.First,the grandchildren’s occupation,though increasingly diversified,are significantly associated with their parents’.Second,both the“grandparent-grandchildren”effect and the“parent-grandchildren”effect are present in the mobility patterns.The net effect of multigenerational mobility exists,yet stronger in families whose grandparental generation has managerial positions in the private sector.Third,the multigenerational mobility effect is more significant in the younger cohort,while the effect of whether one has a job position in the state system is decreasing.The way how the divergence model develops in the future will have lasting impact on the social reproduction of the business elites,the extent of social closure,and the sustainability of Chinese private economy.