长寿时代中国百岁老人死亡风险影响因素探究

An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of Mortality Risks of Chinese Centenarians in the Era of Longevity

经济社会发展以及平均预期寿命不断延长助力中国进入了长寿时代,其突出特征之一是百岁老人数量不断增多。百岁老人的健康状况及其变化特点引起了学界的广泛关注。利用CLHLS六期调查获得百岁老人的健康和死亡数据,基于Cox模型筛选和确定百岁老人死亡风险的关键影响因素。研究结果发现,与普通老年人群体相比,百岁老人死亡风险的影响因素相对比较特殊,后者的风险主要来自其客观健康状况,健康状况越差的百岁老人,死亡风险越高,而其受到社会经济状况的影响并不十分明显;此外,性别以及现在是否抽烟对百岁老人的死亡风险具有显著影响。研究客观揭示了百岁老人死亡风险的主要影响因素,对于进一步降低百岁老人死亡风险,增强其健康福祉具有重要意义。

With the rapid socioeconomic development and the increasing average life expectancy,China has shifted into an era of longevity.One significant feature is the increasing size of Chinese centenarians and their health status changing characteristics are attracting increasing attention from academic communities.By using Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey(CLHLS)to obtain health and death data for centenarians,this paper employs Cox model to pinpoint the key influencing factors of mortality risk of Chinese centenarians.Our findings turn out that compared with the other elderly population,the mortality-risk determinants among centenarians are unique.The most important risk of the latter comes from their objective health status.The worse the health situation,the higher mortality risk is.Meanwhile,this rate is less affected by social and economic conditions.However,gender and smoking habit both play parts in the mortality risk of centenarians.This study comprehensively indicates the key factors for the mortality risk of Chinese centenarians,which is of great significance to reduce centenarians’mortality risks and enhance their health and well-beings.