政策调整变迁与京津冀区域协同发展——基于合成控制法的分析

Policy Adjustment and Evolution and Coordinated Development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei:Based on Synthetic Control

利用省域面板数据,采用合成控制法,检验和测度了京津冀区域协同发展中由政策转变演进带来的经济增长效应。研究发现:在京津冀区域发展政策干预初期,区域人均GDP增长速度损耗平均达15%—16%,最高达21.06%;随后政策调整,转为强化区域内部协同规划,区域人均GDP增速平均提高3%—4%,最高达8.6%,大大修正了前期政策中的负面效应。可见,早期政策干预没能释放京津冀区域经济增长的潜力,而后面针对区域内部的规划整合与合理疏解,对优化区域整体发展有了积极作用。因此,政策制定者应把握区域发展阶段特征与变化趋势,相机优化政策设计,使政策调整更加符合区域发展的规律,使得区域内部及区域与区域之间相互协同。

In this paper,the economic growth benefits caused by policy changes in the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region are tested and measured by using provincial panel data and synthetic control method.The study found that:in the early stage of regional development policy intervention in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei,the average loss of per capita GDP growth rate in the region was about 15%-16%,and the highest was 21.06%.Subsequently,based on the policy adjustment of strengthening intra-regional collaborative planning the growth rate of per capita GDP in the region increased by an average of 3%to 4%,with a maximum of 8.6%,which greatly revised the negative effects of the previous policy.It can be seen that the early policy intervention failed to release the potential of regional growth in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei,while the integration planning and reasonable decentralization within the region played a positive role in optimizing the overall development.Therefore,the policymaker should grasp the feature and trend of regional development,periodically to optimize policy,design,which would make policy adjustment more in line with the law of regional development.