高价彩礼对农村家庭消费的挤出效应——基于扩展OLG模型的实证检验

The Crowding out Effect of High Bride-price on Rural Household Consumption:An Empirical Test Based on Generalized OLG Model

在社会经济发展过程中,农村家庭普遍存在消费增长变化迟缓的消费粘性。它与消费理论中的习惯形成消费粘性不同,是指农村家庭消费未随收入增长同步变化而表现出的消费粘性,即农村家庭消费率增长率始终围绕零值上下波动。根据农村家庭消费的扩展OLG模型,并利用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据对高价彩礼对农村家庭消费的影响进行实证分析。实证结果表明:1)高价彩礼对农村家庭消费存在显著的挤出效应,抑制了收入增长对消费的促进作用,从而形成了消费粘性;2)根据贝克尔时间偏好理论,男孩偏好或者育有男孩的家庭面临高价彩礼的冲击,不得不减少当期消费,从而强化了消费粘性;3)高价彩礼严重影响了农村家庭消费结构升级,也进一步强化了消费粘性。进一步实证检验发现,婚姻挤压、城镇化过程中的婚姻观念转变和女性就业异质性是农村高价彩礼的成因,并形成了影响消费粘性的传导机制。在理论与实证基础上,对抑制高价彩礼和促进农村消费增长的相关公共政策选择进行了讨论。

In the process of socio-economic development the consumption stickiness with slow changes of consumption growth is widespread in rural households,unlike consumption stickiness by the habit formation in the classical consumption theory,it refers to that the consumption does not coordinately transform with the income growth in some rural households,that is,the growth rate of consumption-income ratio always fluctuates around zero in some rural households.The paper constructs a household consumption model based on generalized OLG model,and makes an empirical test on the impact of high bride-price on the rural household consumption with the data of China Family Panel Studies(CFPS).The empirical results show the following aspects:Firstly,high bride-price significantly crowds out household consumption expenditure and weakens the promoting effect of income growth on the rural household consumption,which leads to the consumption stickiness.Secondly,according to the theory of Becker’s time preference,families with boy preference or with boys has to reduce consumption for confronting with the expected shock of high bride-price,which will robust the consumption stickiness.Thirdly,the high bride-price will restrain heavily the upgrading of rural consumption structure,and further robust the consumption stickiness.The further empirical tests show that the marriage squeeze,the change of marriage concept in the process of urbanization and the heterogeneity of women employment are the key factors of the rural high bride-price,which make the transmission mechanism of consumption stickiness.Based on the theoretical and empirical results,the paper discusses the public policy options for restraining the high bride-price and promoting rural consumption growth in rural areas.