私有信息、外交沟通与中美危机升级

Private Information,Diplomatic Communication and the Escalation of Sino-U.S.Crisis

战争起源的理性主义解释假设国家有意错误呈现或隐藏自身能力与决心等私有信息;经典的错误知觉理论则认为国家通常会高估对手的能力、决心与敌意,进而产生非本意冲突。在中美间冲突及其升级过程中,中美围绕私有信息的外交沟通呈现出不同于理性主义和错误知觉理论的特性,即中国并非有意隐藏或歪曲自身的能力和决心,而是试图通过沟通、信号和冲突等方式向美国证明其可信性,但美国仍然低估中国的冲突能力和决心。既有研究并未系统剖析外交沟通中由低估认知偏差所引发的中美两国走向危机及危机升级的机制。朝鲜战争和1995—1996年台海危机这两个极端案例展示了美国对中国能力与决心的低估认知偏差以及中国通过外交沟通和危机升级向美国展现决心并形成政策底线和敏感性共识的政治过程。系统分析和总结中美在走向危机的过程中所存在的对能力与决心的低估认知偏差及其冲突效应,改进理性主义和错误知觉理论关于私有信息引发冲突的逻辑,这对于避免中美双方的战略误判、增强中国对美战略沟通成效可带来一定的政策启发。

The rationalist explanation for war assumes that the state intends to mispresent or cover its own private information such as capability and resolve,while the misperception theory argues the state prefers to overestimate the adversary's capability,resolve and hostility,which could result in conflict.The empirical evidence in the Sino-U.S.conflicts and its escalation history is contrary to the theory expectations from rationalism and misperception theory,as China did not intend to hide or mispresent its own capability and resolve,but convince the credibility of its private information through communication,signaling and conflict with the United States.Based on the dimensions of conflict and cooperation,the U.S.perception towards China's strategic intentions could be divided into two basic types,namely underestimation and overestimation,while the existing literature does not focus on the mechanism through which the underestimation bias could cause the outbreak and escalation of the conflict between China and the United States.Two classic cases,the Korean War and the 1995-1996 Cross Strait Crisis,elaborate the fact that the U.S.misperceived China's capability and resolve,and China signaled its resolve to the counterpart by communication and even escalation which attributes to the formation of policy redline and sensitivity.This paper explores the underestimation bias of capability and resolve during the crisis escalation between China and the U.S.,and updates the logic from private information to conflict proposed by rationalism and misperception theories.It has policy implications for avoiding strategic misjudgment between China and the United States,and promoting the effects of China's strategic communication towards the United States.