21世纪多边主义的危机与转型

Multilateralism in the 21st Century:Crisis and Transformation

第二次世界大战后形成的多边主义是危机的产物,也在危机中延续和转型。20世纪的多边主义是以美国意愿为核心动力、全球性国际组织为制度保障、经贸互惠为扩散机制形成的等级化国际秩序。21世纪的全球危机则推动国际秩序向去等级化方向转型,主要体现在三个方面:一是发展中国家的自主开放意愿是主要动力来源;二是区域贸易协定成为基本制度保障;三是嵌入式的发展合作关系成为主要扩散机制。多边主义转型对全球治理带来了新挑战。全球治理面临着代表性、制度化和执行力的三元悖论。21世纪的全球治理架构具有更广泛的代表性,但执行力和制度化水平之间的矛盾也更突出。在国际环境不确定性上升的情况下,推动低制度化的多边合作将是提升全球治理执行力的折中选择。中国作为多边主义转型过程中的主要参与者和支持者,应充分考虑到建立新国际秩序的难度和变数,保持足够的耐心和合理的预期,在维护现有国际秩序和推动转型中找到平衡。

The post-WWII multilateralism emerged out of crises,and was also shaped and transformed by crises.The“hierarchical”multilateralism in the 20th century was primarily driven by U.S.preference,institutionalized by international organizations,and diffused through reciprocal agreements.Since the beginning of the 21st century,global crisis has facilitated the transformation of multilateralism towards less hierarchical in three dimensions.First,the primary drive of new multilateralism originates from developing countries'collective preference.Second,regional trade agreements become the core components of multilateral institutional framework.Third,new multilateralism is spread through diffusing development cooperation.The transformation of multilateralism imposes new challenges to global governance,which faces the impossible trinity among representativeness,institutionalization,and effectiveness.The 21st century multilateralism increases representativeness of global governance,but it also highlights the tradeoff between institutionalization and effectiveness.With rising uncertainties of international environment,less institutionalized multilateral cooperation would be an inevitable choice for an effective global governance.As one of the most important participants and supporters of the transformation of multilateralism,China should have reasonable expectations on the difficulties and uncertainties of establishing a new global order.