中国城市洪涝致灾机理与风险评估研究进展

Progress on disaster mechanism and risk assessment of urban flood/waterlogging disasters in China

近年来,在全球气候变化和城市化快速发展的共同影响下,中国城市洪涝灾害日益严重,已经成为影响中国城市公共安全的突出问题,严重制约经济社会的持续健康发展。变化环境下城市洪涝致灾机理与风险评估研究是完善城市防洪除涝减灾体系、提升城市防洪除涝能力的重要依据。本文阐述了气候变化和城市化发展对城市洪涝灾害的影响机制,系统分析了城市洪涝灾害的驱动要素和致灾机理,梳理了城市洪涝灾害的风险评估和分区方法,并以济南市海绵城市示范区为例,对城市洪涝灾害风险分区方法进行了分析和对比。

During the past years,urban floods/waterlogging disaster is becoming a big challenge due to the joint impact of global climate change and rapid urbanization,which is becoming an important factor affecting urban public security in China,and seriously restricting the sustainable and healthy development of economics and society.The study on the disaster mechanism and risk assessment of urban flood/waterlogging disaster under the changing environment is the important basis to improve urban flood/waterlogging control and disaster reduction system,and enhance the urban flood control and waterlogging reduction capacity.In this study,the influence mechanism of climate change and urbanization on urban flood/waterlogging disaster was investigated,and the driving factors and disaster mechanism of urban flood/waterlogging disaster were analyzed systematically.The methods of risk assessment and risk zoning on urban flood/waterlogging disaster were also reviewed,and the sponge city demonstration area in Jinan City was selected as a case study to analyze and compare risk zoning of urban flood/waterlogging disaster.