梯级水库运行期设计洪水理论和方法

Theory and method of design flood in cascade reservoir operation period

人类活动和气候变化显著地改变了河川径流及洪水的时空分配过程,直接影响下游断面的设计洪水。本文综述水库对下游水文情势的影响,提出梯级水库运行期设计洪水理论方法和研究内容;重点探讨非一致性洪水频率分析和基于Copula函数的最可能地区洪水组成法,比较各种方法的实用性;推荐采用运行期设计洪水及汛控水位指导水库调度运行,建议进一步加强水库运行期设计洪水计算理论和方法研究。

The human activity and climate change have significantly altered the river flow and spatio-temporal distribution of flood process,which directly impact on design flood in the downstream section.The effects of upper reservoir construction and regulation on downstream hydrologic regime are reviewed,the main research contents of design flood theory and method in cascade reservoir operation period are proposed.We mainly discuss non-stationary flood frequency analysis method and the most likely flood regional combination method based on copula function,and compare their practicability.We recommend using design floods and flood control water level in reservoir operation period,and suggest further research references and directions.