新能源汽车需求与库存量预测——基于系统动力学建模与仿真

突如其来的新冠肺炎疫情打乱了汽车行业的正常运行节奏,长期来看,或将对未来全球汽车行业格局产生影响,这更给新能源汽车企业库存管理带来极大的挑战。为解决需求不确定高、预测不准确等带来的成本过高问题,选取北汽新能源作为研究对象建立系统动力学模型,并发现了新能源汽车库存量的变化规律及其不同影响因子间的作用机理来进行库存量预测。通过分析,发现政府补贴大幅下降对消费者购买意愿没有产生大的影响,可见当新能源汽车发展到一定水平后,政府完全可以取消对新能源汽车的购买补贴。而库存量的波动却十分明显;另一方面,缩短生产延迟时间对于库存量的稳定也至关重要,延迟越长,库存调整越慢,节点库存波动越大。

The sudden COVID-19 epidemic has disrupted the normal operation rhythm of the automobile industry, and in the long run, it may have an impact on the future pattern of the global automobile industry, which brings great challenges to the inventory management of new energy automobile enterprises. In order to solve the problem of high cost caused by high demand uncertainty and inaccurate forecast, BAIC BJEV is selected as the research object to establish a system dynamics model. The changing law of the inventory of new energy vehicles and the action mechanism among different influencing factors are found to predict the inventory.Through the analysis, it is found that the sharp decline in government subsidies has no great impact on consumers’ willingness to buy, which shows that when the new energy vehicles have developed to a certain level, the government can completely cancel the purchase subsidies for new energy vehicles. However, the fluctuation of inventory is very obvious;on the other hand, shortening the production delay time is also very important for the stability of inventory. The longer the delay is, the slower the inventory adjustment is, and the greater the fluctuation of node inventory is.