战略分歧与日韩关系困局

Strategic Differences and Difficulties in Japan-South Korea Relations

近年来,日韩关系持续紧张,两国间历史纠葛、领土争端、经贸摩擦等日渐加剧,“战略分歧”所起深层规范作用愈益明显。日韩战略分歧是由双方围绕结构性要素的矛盾而生成并加剧的,其作为新的基础变量从深层结构影响着日韩关系的发展走向,具体表现为对朝路线造成双方基本的安全政策分歧,两国围绕中国崛起在地缘战略上不断形成分歧,而“特朗普冲击”下的同盟管理导致两国分歧不断加重。由于内外因素作用,日韩逐步走向战术性缓和是大概率事件,但两国关系要真正实现结构性的改善与升级,则需要通过调整战略参数、重建政治共识等来消解战略分歧,这一进程势必曲折而艰难。

In recent years,Japan-ROK relations have been under constant tension,with historical and territorial disputes,economic and trade frictions increasingly intensified.The role of deep normalization played by the“strategic differences”has become gradually obvious.Specifically,the strategic differences are generated and aggravated by the contradiction on structural elements,such as major security policies,geopolitical conception and coordination of alliance combination.As a new fundamental variable,it affects the development trend of Japan-ROK relations from the deep structure:first,“DPRK factors”and the policy towards DPRK caused the basic security policy differences between the two sides;second,the two countries have been at odds over geostrategy on the rise of China;third,the alliance management under the“Trump shock”has led to the aggravation of the differences between Japan and the ROK.Due to internal and external factors,it is highly likely that Japan and the ROK will gradually move towards tactical detente.However,to truly achieve structural improvement and upgrading of bilateral relations,the two countries need to resolve strategic differences by adjusting their strategic parameters and rebuilding political consensus,the process of which is bound to face twists and turns.