量刑如何规范化:基于盗窃罪量刑案例的实证分析

How to Standardize Sentencing:An Empirical Analysis of Sentencing Cases Based on Theft

一直以来,法官多采用估推式断案,量刑的自由裁量权很大程度上影响了公正判决.量刑规范化成为我国司法改革的关键内容.为此,本文对司法量刑规范化进行了理论分析,系统地研究了盗窃罪的包括刑期、缓刑和罚金在内的多个判决结果(而非单一判决结果)之间的联系,以及影响因素和多个判决结果之间的内在机理;并基于手工收集的401份盗窃罪判决文书,利用主成分分析、回归分析、聚类分析和结构方程模型等统计方法进行实证分析.研究结果表明:盗窃数额、前科累犯、作案次数、破坏性手段和坦白自首会通过罚金这一中介变量对缓刑和刑期产生影响;前科累犯和被害人谅解对于刑期、罚金和缓刑都有十分显著的影响.特别地,文章首次发现了罚金、缓刑和刑期之间的作用机理,罚金和刑期的正相关性表明“以罚代刑”并非盗窃罪判决的重要依据.研究丰富和发展了刑法盗窃罪理论,也对修订和完善我国量刑指导意见提供重要参考,为实现“同案同判”的量刑规范化奠定基础.

Judges mostly use estimation and inference to judge cases.The discretion of sentencing has greatly influenced the fair judgment.The standardization of sentencing becomes the key content of China’s judicial reform.In view of this,this article makes a theoretical analysis of the standardization of judicial sentencing,systematically studies the connection between multiple judgment results(not a single judgment result)including the sentence,probation,and fines of theft crime,as well as the internal mechanism between influencing factors and multiple judgment results;In addition,based on the 401 theft judgment documents collected by hand,this paper uses principal components analysis,regression analysis,cluster analysis and structural equation models to perform empirical analysis.The results of the study show that:The amount of theft,former criminals,the number of crimes committed,destructive means,and confession have an impact on the probation and sentence through the intermediary variable of fines;former criminal recidivism and victim understanding have a significant impact on the sentence,fines and probation.In particular,the article first discovered the mechanism of action between fines,probation,and sentence.The positive correlation between fines and sentence implies that“substituting penalty for administrative fines”is not an important basis for the crime of theft.The research enriches and develops the theory of criminal theft,and also provides an important reference for the revision and improvement of China’s sentencing guidelines,laying the foundation for the standardization of sentencing“same case and same sentence”.