“新冠冲击”与后疫情时代的日本经济

Impact of COVID-19 and Japanese Economy in Post-Epidemic Era

自20世纪90年代初泡沫经济崩溃后,日本经济一直也没有实现真正意义上的恢复,2013年以后出现了低水平的长期景气,但2019年下半年开始进入下行阶段。突如其来的新冠疫情又给日本经济沉重打击,可谓雪上加霜。日本观光旅游业、航空运输、酒店、餐饮业以及会展等行业遭受直接打击;因全球经济萎缩和产业链阻断导致日本外需减少、国内生产停滞。随着疫情形势的好转,日本国内经济活动逐渐恢复,但目前依然处于极为严峻的局面。而且以美国为中心的疫情蔓延势头依然很强,根本看不到尽头,世界经济预期不断下挫,后疫情时代的日本经济面临诸多挑战,前景不容乐观。2020年日本经济将萎缩5%左右,完全恢复到疫情前水平恐怕要到2022年以后。从中长期来看,随着超老龄化社会的进展,财政状况将进一步恶化,劳动力短缺日益成为制约因素,潜在经济增长率提高无望,日本经济慢性衰退的命运难以改变。

Since the economic bubble burst in the early 1990s,Japan has not achieved real economic recovery.After 2013,Japan has a low level of long-term economic boom,but in the second half of 2019,Japanese economy began to take a downward turn.The sudden severe COVID-19 pandemic has seriously damaged Japan's economy,and made it even worse.The direct impact of COVID-19 on Japan's economy is that it has important negative effects on Japan's tourism industry,air transport,hotel,catering industry and exhibition industries;the indirect impact is that the the contraction of global economy and the break of industry chain cause the reduction of foreign demand and the stagnation of domestic production in Japan.With COVID-19 epidemic waning,Japan's domestic economy is on the mend,but it is still in an extremely serious situation.Moreover,the US-centric epidemic spread is still very grim,and is far from over.The world economy is expected to continue to decline.Looking to the future,Japan's economy in post-epidemic era is facing many challenges,and the prospect is not bright.Japan's economy will shrink by about 5%in 2020,and it will fully recover to the level before the epidemic after 2022.In the medium and long term,with the progress of super-aging society,the fiscal position will continue to deteriorate,labor shortage will increasingly become a restriction factor,the hoped-for potential economic growth may not arrive,and slow decline of Japanese economy is difficult to change.