我国中长期粮食供应的脆弱性分析及其应对

Analysis on the Vulnerability of China′s Medium and Long Term Grain Supply and Its Coping Strategies

新冠肺炎疫情凸显了粮食供求关系的脆弱性,当前我国粮食供应安全问题的核心已经由短期的数量安全问题转变为中长期的生产能力安全问题。中长期粮食供应脆弱性的原因是粮食生产面临着土地资源数量与质量双重下降的约束、人力资本约束、科技创新与推广应用不足的约束及市场约束等,深层原因有制度性约束和小农生产方式的制约等。粮食供应安全涉及纷繁复杂的经济社会问题和体制问题,需要采取多重保障策略:坚持藏粮于地、藏粮于技,推进制度创新,培育新型农业经营主体和服务主体,实施农产品加工业提升行动,优化贸易格局,健全粮食监测体系等。

The novel coronavirus pneumonia highlights the vulnerability of the relationship between supply and demand in food.The core of the current food security problem in China has changed from short-term quantity security to medium and long-term production capacity security.The reasons for the medium and long-term food supply vulnerability are that the grain production faces the constraints of the double decline of land resources quantity and quality,human capital constraints,insufficient scientific and technological innovation and popularization,and market constraints.The deep-seated reasons are institutional constraints and small-scale agricultural production mode constraints.Food supply security involves complex economic,social and institutional issues,which requires multiple security strategies:we should adhere to the principle of storing grain in the land and technology,promote system innovation,cultivate new agricultural management subject and service subject,implement the promotion of agricultural product processing industry,optimize the trade pattern,and improve the grain monitoring system.