国际原油价格波动对中国制造业发展的影响

The impact of international crude oil price fluctuation on the development of China’s manufacturing industry

2019年中国原油进口数量超过美国成为世界第一大原油进口国,国际原油价格波动对中国制造业发展的影响越来越大。以2018年1季度至2019年3季度国际原油价格及中国制造业发展相关数据为样本进行实证分析,结果表明:在经济繁荣时期,国际原油价格波动对中国制造业发展的影响要小于经济萧条时期;与公有制企业相比,私有制企业可以更好地借助金融资源来应对国际原油价格波动冲击;在企业内部或外部融资情况得到大幅改善的情况下,私有制企业借助财务状况好转进而提高的生产效率要比公有制企业高出1/5左右。根据研究结论,提出了相关对策建议。

In 2019,China’s crude oil imports surpassed the United States and became the world’s largest crude oil importer.The fluctuation of international crude oil price has an increasing impact on the development of China’s manufacturing industry.An empirical analysis based on the data of international crude oil prices and the development of China’s manufacturing industry from the first quarter of 2018 to the third quarter of 2019 shows that during the economic boom,the impact of international crude oil price fluctuation on the development of China’s manufacturing industry is less than that during the economic recession.Compared with public enterprises,private enterprises can better use financial resources to deal with international crude oil price fluctuation.When the internal or external financing situation of enterprisesis greatly improved,the production efficiency of private enterprises is about 1/5 higher than that of public enterprises.According to the research conclusions,the relevant countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.