国土空间优化中的关键地质要素分析与“双评价”方法

Analysis of key geological factors and the“dual evaluation”method for land space optimization

新时期,地质分析理论在国土空间规划领域的应用日益广泛。为进一步优化关中盆地国土空间格局,从抓住关键因素、科学定量评价、阈值标准有据、结果可信适用的思路出发,该研究提出了基于木桶理论、风险理论和边际理论的资源环境承载能力和国土空间开发适宜性评价(简称“双评价”)理论框架与技术方法,并应用于关中盆地的双评价实践工作中。基于木桶理论,识别关中盆地活动断裂、地质灾害、富硒土地、引汉济渭水资源等4项关键因素;基于边际理论,开展资源承载能力评价;基于风险理论,开展地质环境承载能力、国土空间适宜性和地质安全评价;在单因素评价的基础上开展综合评价;将综合评价结果与区域国土空间开发现状或规划结果做叠加分析,调整和优化区域发展“三区三线”。研究结果表明基于木桶风理边际理论的双评价方法可行,评价结果可信:关中盆地87%的土地属于适宜农业生产和城镇化建设;尤其是引汉济渭工程使关中盆地成为承接东部人口和GDP发展的最佳地区;国土空间开发保护中要珍惜集中连片分布的富硒土地,作为永久农田予以保护;禁止在活动断裂分布范围和地质灾害高危险区进行工程建设,以国土空间规划和用途管制为抓手,从源头防控地震与地质灾害风险。

Geological analysis theory has been widely used in the field of territorial space planning.In order to further optimize the territorial spatial pattern of the Guanzhong Basin,and by taking the steps of identifying key factors,making quantitative evaluation,using well-founded threshold standards and obtaining credible results,we developed a new method based on the wooden barrel theory,risk theory,and marginal theory.The theoretical framework is centered on the evaluations of the resource environmental carrying capacity and land space developmental suitability(referred to as“dual evaluation”).Here,we applied this“dual evaluation”method to the Guanzhong Basin.We identified four key factors,including active faults in the Guanzhong Plain,geological hazards,selenium-rich land,and water resources transfer from Hanjiang to Weihe,according to the wooden barrel theory.We carried out resource carrying capacity assessment based on the marginal theory,and evaluation of geological environmental carrying capacity,land space developmental suitability and geological risks based on the risk theory.After completing the above single-factor evaluation,we performed a comprehensive evaluation and analyzed the results in conjunction with the current developmental status or planning of regional land space to adjust and optimize the so-called“three zones and three lines”of regional development.The final results showed that the“dual evaluation”method can be feasibly applied and the evaluation results are credible.Specifically,the results showed that 87%of land space in the Guanzhong Basin are suitable for agricultural production and urbanization.And the plain has become the best area for population and GDP growths in eastern China.In the development and protection of land space,concentrated and contiguous selenium-rich lands should be protected as permanent farmlands,while construction is prohibited in the active fault and high geohazardous areas.With the focus on territorial space planning and usage control,we can mitigate earthquake hazards and geological risks from the source.