中国城市旅游发展分布动态及时空收敛

Distribution Dynamics and Spatio-temporal Convergence of Urban Tourism Development in China

文章分别使用核密度估计和收敛模型对2005—2017年我国336个地级及以上城市旅游发展的分布动态及收敛性进行检验。结果表明:(1)我国31个省份及四大区域城市旅游数据分布朝着集中的方向发展,城市间旅游业发展相对差异呈缓慢下降趋势;(2)我国城市旅游业存在明显的β收敛趋势,不存在俱乐部收敛;(3)绝对β收敛和条件β收敛同时存在,且条件β收敛速度快于绝对β收敛;(4)空间效应对旅游发展产生显著的影响。旅游要素空间流动愈发明显,城市间具有正向溢出效应,且影响周边城市旅游业发展的相关因素也对该城市旅游业发展产生影响。

This paper respectively uses the kernel density estimation and convergence model to test the distribution dynamics and convergence of tourism in 336 cities in China from 2005 to 2017.The results show that 1)the distribution of urban tourism data tends to be centralized,and the relative differences of urban tourism show a slow decline trend;2)there is a obviousβ-convergence trend of tourism in China,but there is no club convergence;3)both absoluteβ-convergence and conditionβ-convergence exist at the same time,and the conditional convergence rate is faster than the absolute;4)spatial effect has a significant impact on tourism development.The spatial flow of tourism elements is more and more obvious,with positive spillover effect between cities,and the related factors that affect the tourism development of surrounding cities also have an impact on the tourism development of this city.