三参数区间灰数信息下的多阶段多属性不确定决策方法

Multi-stage and Multi-attribute Uncertain Decision-making Method Based on Three-parameter Interval Grey Number Information

针对属性值为三参数区间灰数的多阶段多属性不确定决策问题,文章提出一种基于证据理论和前景理论的决策方法。利用证据理论解决未知的状态概率;考虑到决策者的风险偏好,提出基于前景理论的多参考点设置方法;鉴于阶段决策信息的差异性和波动性,构建基于时间度、偏差及灰熵的阶段权重优化模型;最后根据综合前景值对方案排序择优。实例分析验证了所提方法的合理性。

For multi-stage and multi-attribute uncertain decision-making under three-parameter interval grey numbers,this paper proposes a decision-making method based on evidence theory and prospect theory,which uses the evidence theory to solve unknown situation probability.Considering decision makers’risk preference,the paper presents the setting method of multiple reference points based on prospect theory.In view of the difference and fluctuation of stage decision-making information,the paper constructs a stage weight optimization model based on time degree,deviation and grey entropy.Finally,the scheme is sorted and ranked according to the comprehensive prospect value.Case analyses verify the rationality of the proposed method.