全球化背景下中国潜在经济增长的影响因素与趋势再估计

Influencing Factors and Re-estimation of China's Potential Economic Growth Under the Background of Globalization

本文基于1978~2018年中国的经济数据,运用计量回归分析识别影响潜在产出的因素,使用生产函数法测算潜在经济增长率,借助Logistic模型预测未来的潜在经济增长率。研究发现:全球化、制度变革、科技创新和能源消费绿色化可有效提升中国的潜在经济增长能力;1981~2018年中国潜在经济增长率的平均值约为9.70%;结构性改革外移增长边界使潜在经济增长趋势跃升后缓慢下滑,2050年降至3.81%;不同情境下中国成功跻身高收入国家队列的时间区间是[2025,2030],达到中等发达国家水平的时间范围是[2045,2050]。

Based on the globalization,the paper identifies some structural factors affecting the potential economic growth,estimates the potential economic growth rate,and evaluates the future performance,employed China's data from 1978 to 2018.Four findings can be got from the empirical analysis:firstly,globalization,institutional reform,technological innovation and green energy consumption can enhance China's potential production capacity.Secondly,the average potential economic growth rate in China from 1981 to 2018 is about 9.70%.Thirdly,the outward growth boundary leads to a slowly decline trend in the potential economic growth,which will fall to 3.81%by 2050.Fourthly,under different circumstances,the time range for China to join in the high-income countries is[2025,2030],and the time range to become medium-developed countries is[2045,2050].