卫生资源配置与农村人口贫困发生率关系的空间计量分析

Study on the Distribution of Primary Health Resources and the Incidence of Rural Poverty Based on Spatial Durbin Model

目的:探索我国农村人口贫困发生率的空间分布特征;采用空间计量方法分析社会经济、卫生资源因素对农村贫困发生率的影响。方法:通过计算全局莫兰指数和局部莫兰指数描述区域农村贫困发生率的空间相关性;并通过空间计量模型对相关变量进行空间面板检验。结果:我国农村贫困发生率存在空间相关;各省(市)农村贫困发生率不仅受到本省(市)城镇化水平、平均受教育年限、农村居民年人均可支配收入、农村孕产妇死亡率、基层卫生机构数、每千农村人口拥有床位数的影响,同时也受到邻近省(市)农村居民年人均可支配收入和每千农村人口拥有床位数的影响。结论:我国农村贫困发生率具有较强的空间正相关性。社会经济发展和人口健康素质提升有利于减少农村贫困发生。卫生资源配置可能通过人群健康需求释放而对贫困发生产生双重影响,需要关注邻近地区资源配置和服务利用可能产生的"马太效应"。

Objective:To explore the spatial distribution characteristics of the incidence of rural poverty in China and analyze the impact of socio-economic and health resource factors on the incidence of rural poverty using spatial measurement methods.Methods:The spatial correlation of rural poverty rate was described by calculating the Global Moran*s I and Local Moran's I;spatial panel test was performed on the related variables through a spatial econometric model.Results:There is Spatial correlation in incidence of rural poverty in China.The incidence of rural poverty in each province(city)is not only affected by the level of urbanization in the province(city),the annual disposable income of rural residents,the number of primary health institutions,the number of beds per 1000 rural population but also affected by the annual per capita disposable income of rural residents and the number of beds per 1000 rural population in neighboring provinces(cities).Conclusion:The incidence of rural poverty in China had strong positive spatial correlation.Economic development and urbanization were conducive to reducing rural poverty.The allocation of health resources might have a dual impact on poverty through the release of population health needs.It was necessary to pay attention to the possible“Matthew Effect”of resource allocation and service utilization in neighboring areas.