“一带一路”国家经济发展的空间关联网络及其影响因素研究

Spatial Correlation Network of Belt and Road Countries’ Economic Development and Its Influencing Factors

利用修正的引力模型确定了"一带一路"沿线44个国家经济发展空间关联的网络结构,并利用社会网络分析和二次指派程序方法对该网络结构进行了刻画和影响因素分析。研究发现,受国际金融危机影响,样本考察期内各国经济关联出现先弱化后增强的趋势,森严的网络等级还未形成,网络效率逐渐降低,网络稳定性渐趋增强;中国和印度在网络结构中同时扮演着联系"中介"和中心行动者的角色;劳动力流动、商品出口以及外资引进对经济发展空间关联网络的形成具有正向作用,而各国资本存量不足以及地理距离会负向影响经济发展空间关联网络。

The network structure of the economic development spatial correlation of the 44 countries along the Belt and Road is determined by adopting the modified gravity model and is depicted and analyzed by adopting social network analysis and two assignment procedures. It is found that under the influence of the international financial crisis,the economic relations of these countries tend to weaken first and then strengthen during the sample investigation period,the strict network level has not been formed,the network efficiency is gradually reduced while the network stability is gradually strengthened;and that China and India play the role of connecting " intermediary" and central actors in the network structure,labor flow,commodity export and foreign investment has a positive effect on the formation of the spatial correlation network of economic development while the shortage of capital stock and geographical distance in different countries will negatively affect the spatial correlation network of economic development.