密云水库区间河道洪水风险反演及其对防洪安全的思考

Flood risk inversion of the interval channel in Miyun Reservoir and its reflection on flood control safety

无监测山区小流域洪水预报是现代水文模拟计算的难题,也是首都城市洪水灾害防御和水资源管理的重点和难点。选取密云水库区间河道对家河为研究区域,以2019年8月9日典型暴雨洪水场次为例,基于高精度遥感影像解译,综合曼宁公式、推理公式法及综合单位线等方法,模拟反演暴雨洪水演进及致灾过程,诊断分析河道堤防冲刷损毁原因,提出密云水库区间小流域洪水防御的对策建议,研究结果可为密云水库区间河道监测预报体系建设、小流域综合治理提供科学依据。

Flood forecasting without monitoring in the small watershed of mountainous areas is a difficult problem for modern hydrological simulation calculation,and it is also the key point of flood disaster prevention and water resource management in capital cities.In this paper,Duijiahe River in Miyun Reservoir area was selected as the research area.The typical rainstorm and flood on August 9,2019 was taken as an example to simulate inversion of storm flood and its evolution and disaster causing process based on the methods of high-precision remote sensing image interpretation,integrating Manning formula,rational formula and the synthetic unit hydrograph.The causes of erosion damage of river embankments were diagnosed and analyzed.The suggestions and countermeasures for flood prevention in the small watersheds of Miyun Reservoir were proposed.These results could provide scientific basis for monitoring and forecasting system construction of interval channels and the comprehensive management of small watershed in Miyun Reservoir area.