基于复杂网络的生产安全事故致因研究:以北京市某城区为例

Research on causes of work safety accidents based on complex network theory:a case study of a district in Beijing

为揭示生产安全事故发生机制,基于复杂系统的角度,分析生产安全事故致因因素间耦合及风险传导特征,利用复杂网络理论构建北京市某城区生产安全事故致因网络模型;通过计算节点度和模块度等统计指标研究节点的分布特征,识别出网络中的关键因素以及因素间联系密切的社团结构。结果表明:少数关键因素在网络结构中起着重要连通作用,包括未进行安全教育培训、违章作业和施工方案不健全等因素,网络中存在较为明显的社团结构,对关键因素以及高密度的子网络采取针对性的管控措施,阻断风险在网络中的传导,从而有效提高安全管理水平并降低事故发生率。

In order to reveal occurrence mechanism of work safety accidents,coupling and risk transmission features of accident causation factors were analyzed from a perspective of complex system.Then,a causation network model in a district of Beijing was constructed by complex network theory.Distribution characteristics of nodes were studied by calculating statistical indexes such as node degree and modularity,and key factors and community structure with close connections among factors in the network were identified.The results show that a few key factors play an important role in network structure,including lack of safety education and training,illegal operation and unsound construction plan,etc,and there exists obvious community structures.Safety management can be improved effectively and accident rate reduced by taking targeted control measures for key factors and high-density sub-networks to obstruct transmission of risks in the network.