东北老龄化社区路网疏散仿真模拟及优化

Simulation and optimization of road network evacuation in communities for elderly people in Northeast China

为解决老龄化社区临灾脆弱性问题,提高疏散效率,采用随机抽样法提取东北地区814个社区,通过统计分析典型道路空间形态,提出疏散有效路网密度的概念;建立疏散仿真模型,利用Pathfinder软件仿真分析老龄化社区路网形态;提出适应老龄群体疏散行为的社区道路网络优化策略,并验证其有效性。结果表明:疏散效率与人口老龄化呈负相关;方形路网具有更高的疏散效率,随着路网密度的增大,人口老龄化对疏散时间的影响降低了37.3%;在街区出入口和道路转折处,易发生点状拥堵,带状拥堵范围与街区尺度呈正相关。

In order to address vulnerability of communities for the elderly and improve their evacuation efficiency,typical road space patterns were statistically analyzed with 814 communities in Northeast China extracted by random sampling as research object,and concept of effective evacuation road network density was proposed.Secondly,an evacuation simulation model was constructed,and road network shapes of the elderly communities were simulated by adopting pathfinder software.Finally,a community road network optimization strategy that adapted to evacuation behaviors of elderly people was put forward and verified.The results show that there is a negative correlation between evacuation efficiency and population aging.Square road network has higher efficiency,and as network density increases,impact of aging on evacuation time decreases by 37.3%.It is also found that point-shaped congestion is prone to occur at entrances and exits of blocks and turning points of roads while range of band-shaped congestion is positively correlated with block scale.