贵州铜仁市暴雨洪涝气候变化特征及灾害风险评估

Climate change characteristics and disaster risk assessment of rainstorm and flood in Tongren,Guizhou

利用铜仁市1961—2014年共54a的10个国家气象站资料,2010—2014年5a铜仁市196个乡镇区域自动气象站的气象资料,利用统计方法分析研究铜仁市暴雨、洪涝的时空气候变化特征;基于自然灾害风险理论,采用统计相关、回归分析方法,结合致灾因子、地形地貌、水库河流、灾情资料,开展铜仁市的暴雨洪涝灾害的风险指数研究,最后基于sufer软件绘制完成铜仁市的暴雨洪涝灾害区划图。结果表明:铜仁市的暴雨发生期为3—11月,集中在5—8月;暴雨与大暴雨的空间分布大体分布相似,西北部的德江和东北部的松桃是2个高频中心;暴雨洪涝灾害风险,总体上市西部重于东部,北部重于南部。

Using the meteorological data from 10 national weather stations in Tongren from 1961 to 2014,and the meteorological data from 196 regional automatic weather stations in Tongren from 2010 to 2014,we analyzed the climate change characteristics during rainstorms and floods in Tongren.Based on the natural disaster risk theory,adopting statistical correlation method and regression analysis,considering the disaster factors,the landform,reservoirs and rivers,and the disaster data,we studied the risk index of rainstorm and flood disasters in Tongren.Finally,Sufer software was used to draw the zoning map of rainstorm and flood disasters in Tongren.The results showed that rainstorms in Tongren mainly occurred from March to November,and was concentrated from May to August.The spatial distribution of rainstorms and heavy rainstorms was similar,concentrated around Dejiang in the northwest and Songtao in the northeast.In general,the risk of rainstorm and flood disasters was higher in the west and the north,and lower in the east and the south of the city.