欧佩克60年石油市场战略演变及未来发展前景

Evolution of OPEC’s market strategy since 1960 and its development prospects

2020年9月14日是欧佩克60岁生日。欧佩克的历史就是世界石油市场的发展史。欧佩克凭借其巨大的石油储量、原油产量和出口量,在风云变幻的国际石油市场中拥有举足轻重的地位。欧佩克市场战略的核心是“收入最大化”,其影响力源自其剩余产能、产量配额,以及对欧佩克与石油消费国、欧佩克与非欧佩克产油国、欧佩克成员国之间、欧佩克成员国政府与国家石油公司、欧佩克成员国国家石油公司与消费国国际石油公司关系的处理。未来,欧佩克内部仍然具有极强的凝聚力,欧佩克依然是“市场稳定器”,“欧佩克+”依然是全球石油市场治理的基础。然而,新冠肺炎疫情致使世界石油需求急剧下降,欧佩克成员国因收入下降可能出现政局不稳,加之低碳能源转型加速,欧佩克的发展面临着巨大挑战。

September 14th is the 60th anniversary of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC),who witnessed countless winds of changes.OPEC’s history is actually the history of modern world oil market.Depending on its enormous oil reserves,lion’s share of crude production and exports,OPEC is of vital importance in the development of world oil market.The core of OPEC’s market strategy is for“revenue maximization”,which needs both highest price and most supply.Much of OPEC’s influence stem from its surplus production capacity,its production quotas mechanism and its handling of relations with such five stakeholders as oil consuming countries,non-OPEC,OPEC members,OPEC member states and its NOCs,and its NOCs and IOCs from oil consuming countries.In the future,OPEC still has strong coherence and could work as a market stabilizer,with“OPEC+”mechanism so as to better govern world oil market.However,challenges remain to OPEC,as world oil demand is greatly contracted due to COVID-19 pandemic,the domestic turmoil may arise due to declining revenue and a fatal blow is being brought by low carbon energy transition worldwide.