中国退耕还林工程对农户消费及其结构的影响研究——基于持久收入假说与长期跟踪大农户样本

Study on the Effect of the Conversion of Cropland to Forest Project on the Farmers’Consumption and Its Structure in China——Base on Permanent Income Hypothesis and Long-term Continuous Tracking Large Sample Data

实施退耕还林工程对农户消费及其结构的影响关系到退耕还林工程改善农户生计的目标实现。文章利用8次跟踪调研获得的6省区、15市县、952个样本农户1995~2016年间的平衡面板数据,基于心理账户理论改进持久收入假说,分析了中国退耕还林工程对农户消费及其结构的影响。经验性结果表明:(1)退耕还林工程使样本农户以土地为基础的持久收入、非农持久收入和暂时收入分别增加了4.66%、2.05%和2.98%,而以土地为基础的暂时收入减少了14.11%;(2)退耕还林工程使样本农户的总消费、食品消费和其他消费分别增长了1.71%、1.91%和1.69%,上述影响主要作用于基本性需求消费,对非基本性需求消费的影响较小,故未显著改善样本农户的消费结构;(3)退耕还林工程促进了样本农户粮食消费的商品化,自给性消费减少了35.32%,购买性消费增加了9.69%,但类似影响未见于样本农户的副食品消费;(4)在长江流域和黄河流域,退耕还林工程对样本农户消费及其结构的影响具有明显差异。鉴于以上结论,政府需要高度重视退耕还林农户的消费及其结构变化,因地制宜地调整退耕还林工程相关政策,使其继续发挥增收效应,并尽快完善农村社会保障制度,实现农户消费水平的提升和消费结构的改善。

How the Conversion of Cropland to Forest Project(CCFP)impact on farmers’consumption and its structure is related to the realization of the goal of improving farmers’livelihood.By using the continuous tracking survey data of 952 sample farmers in 6 provinces,15 counties from 1995 to 2016,improving Permanent Income Hypothesis based on psychological account theory,this paper analyzed the impact of CCFP on farmers’consumption and its structure.The empirical results showed that:(1)the CCFP has increased the land-based permanent income,off-farm permanent income and off-farm transitory income of sample rural households by 4.66%,2.05%and 2.98%respectively,and has decreased land-based transitory income by 14.11%.(2)The CCFP has increased the total consumption,food consumption and other consumption of sample rural households increased by 1.71%,1.91%and 1.69%respectively.Because these impacts are mainly aimed at basic demand consumption rather than nonbasic demand consumption,the CCFP hasn’t signifi cantly improved the consumption structure of sample farmers.(3)The CCFP has promoted the commercialization of grain consumption of sample rural households,but has no similar impact on the consumption of non-staple food.(4)In the Yangtze River Basin and the Yellow River Basin,there are signifi cant differences in the impact of CCFP on sample rural households’consumption.The governmental attentions should be focused on the impact of the CCFP on farmers’consumption and its structure,and some policies need to be adjusted according to local conditions.At the mean time,rural social security system should be improved as soon as possible to enhance the consumption tendency of farmers and realize the optimization of consumption structure and the improvement of livelihood.