长江经济带:产业结构升级的时空差异分析

Analysis on Time and Spatial Differences of Industrial Structure Optimization in Yangtze-River Economic Belt

通过构造变量测定产业结构合理化和高级化,得到长江经济带2000年以来产业结构演进的特征:产业发展整体不平衡,产业结构高级化进程缺乏一致性。2004-2017年偏离-份额分析显示:上海和浙江由于已处于经济发展的高位,想要继续保持高速增长难度较大,云南和贵州的区域竞争力较弱;重庆、贵州、四川、安徽、湖南和湖北6个省市的区域竞争力正在提升,云南经济增长的动能明显不足;以全国为参考,长江经济带的九大产业均为增长产业;九个二级产业相对全国均具有产业竞争力,其中建筑业最强,农林牧渔业相对较弱;第三产业中批发和零售业的产业竞争力最强,其次是金融业,住宿和餐饮业最弱。要通过体制机制创新,来调整产业结构和提升经济增长的质量,以实现长江经济带建设目标。

Through constructing statistical variables to determine the industrial structure rationalization and optimization,we have gained the characteristics of Yangtze-River Economic Belt industrial structure evolution since 2004:the overall industrial development is unbalanced,and the advancement of the industrial structure lacks consistency.The shift-share-analysis from 2004 to 2017 shows:Shanghai and Zhejiang are already at a high level of economic development,so it is difficult to maintain rapid growth,while Yunnan and Guizhou have comparatively lower regional competitiveness.The regional competitiveness of Chongqing,Guizhou,Sichuan,Anhui,Hunan and Hubei provinces have been improving,and the momentum of Yunnan′s economic growth is obviously insufficient.Taking the whole country as reference,the nine industries in the Yangtze-River Economic Belt are all growth industries.The nine secondary industries have industrial competitiveness relative to the whole country,among which the construction industry is the strongest,and the agriculture-forestry-industry are the weakest.In the third industry,the industry competitiveness of wholesale and retail is the strongest,followed by financial industry,and accommodation and catering industry is the weakest.Institutional innovation to adjust industrial structure and economic growth is necessary to achieve the goal of Yangtze-River Economic Belt Construction.