外贸进出口、外商直接投资和产业结构优化——基于湖北省数据的VAR模型实证研究

Foreign Trade Import and Export,Foreign Direct Investment and Industrial Structure Optimization--Empirical Research on VAR Model Based on the Data of Hubei Province

自“十二五规划”出台以来,国内产业转型升级步伐加快,中部六省人均GDP都已超过3500美元,中部地区已经进入工业化中后期,产业结构面临升级。经济新常态下加快中部地区产业升级,促进经济快速稳定发展,对实现中部崛起尤为重要。同时国内外复杂多变的经济形势对中部产业升级也提出更高的要求,2018年伴随中美新一轮贸易摩擦升级,始于沿海蔓延内地的国内经济下行现象明显,中部省份作为国家东西部产业链的重要枢纽,不断优化和完善产业结构,辅助承接东部产业升级和带动西部产业转型发展的定位十分关键。论文基于2000-2019年湖北省外贸进出口、外商投资、产业经济等数据,通过建立计量模型和变量数据分析,实证研究发现三者之间存在长期稳定的动态和因果关系,外商投资对三次产业存在明显促进效应。

Since the promulgation of the"12th Five Year Plan",the pace of domestic industrial transformation and upgrading has been accelerated.The per capita GDP of six provinces in central China has exceeded 3500 dollars.The central region has entered the middle and late stage of industrialization,and the industrial structure is facing upgrading.Under the new economic normal,it is particularly important to accelerate the industrial upgrading of the central region and promote the rapid and stable economic development.At the same time,the complex and changeable economic situation at home and abroad also puts forward higher requirements for industrial upgrading in central China.In 2018,with a new round of trade friction upgrading between China and the United States,the domestic economic downturn began to spread along the coast in the mainland.As an important hub of the industrial chain in the east and the west of China,the central provinces should constantly optimize and improve the industrial structure,assist in undertaking the industrial upgrading in the east and promote the industrial transformation and development in the west.Based on the data of foreign trade import and export,foreign investment and industrial economy of Hubei Province from 2000 to 2019,through the establishment of econometric model and variable data analysis,the empirical study finds that there is a long-term stable dynamic and causal relationship between the three,and foreign investment has a significant promoting effect on the three industries.