市场化改革、粮价波动与粮食生产——基于省际面板数据实证研究

Market-oriented Reform,Fluctuation of Grain Price and Grain Production——Empirical Study Based on Interprovincial Panel Data

运用省际面板数据实证检验中国1997-2017年市场化改革背景下粮价与粮食生产之间的关系。研究结果表明:市场化改革以来粮价是维持粮食产量稳定增长的一个重要原因,粮价上涨能够激励农户扩大粮食生产,提高粮食产量。进一步研究表明:粮价对中国粮食生产影响存在明显的地区差异,从粮食主销区来看,粮价与粮食生产之间表现出明显的负相关关系,而在粮食主产区粮价与粮食生产之间却有着明显的正相关关系。

This paper investigates the relationship between grain price and grain production under the background of market-oriented reform in China from 1997 to 2017 using provincial panel data.The results show that grain price is an important reason for maintaining stable growth of grain output since the market-oriented reform,since it can stimulate farmers to expand grain production by rising grain prices,and increase grain production.Further studies show that there are obvious regional differences in grain prices in China’s grain production,from the point of the main grain districts,there is an obviously negative correlation between grain price and grain production,however,there is an obviously positive correlation between grain price and grain production in the main grain producing areas.