长江三角洲人口时空格局演变及驱动因素研究

Spatial-temporal Pattern Evolution and Driving Factors of Population in the Yangtze River Delta

运用重心、人口密度及相对变化率、空间计量等方法,对长江三角洲人口分布格局演变、驱动因素进行研究。结果表明:①2000—2018年人口重心迁移方向的变化,表征人口分布格局转变,而迁移速度趋缓表征了区域发展向稳态的转变;②在人口密度分布呈现相对稳定的区域差异基础上,时空演变从2000—2012年上海、苏南显著的增加与苏中、苏北、安徽部分城市的下降,向2012—2018年部分欠发达城市人口快速增长转变。③空间计量回归表明,在人口集聚的“马太效应”下,驱动因素的变化主要表现为市场力量的趋强、政府影响的弱化,另一方面区域一体化的推进也带来空间溢出效应的增强。

The population distribution spatial-temporal pattern is an important indicator of the regional economic development pattern,as well as an important basis for relevant policy formulation.Under the background of the integration of the Yangtze River Delta into a national strategy,studying the regional population spatial-temporal pattern evolution and driving factors has important theoretical and practical value for better promoting regional high-quality development.With the methods of gravity analysis,population density and relative change rate of population density,we study the spatial-temporal pattern evolution of population distribution about the Yangtze River Delta from 2000 to 2018.Subsequently,based on the space panel regression method,natural and economic as well as social indicators are recognized to make quantitative analysis on the driving factors of spatial-temporal pattern evolution of population distribution in the Yangtze River Delta.The major conclusions can be drawn as follows:1)Change in the direction of population gravity center from 2000 to 2018 reflects the change of population distribution pattern driven by regional development pattern,and the slowdown in migration speeds represents a shift in regional development to steady state.2)On the basis of the relatively stable regional differences in the population density distribution of the Yangtze River Delta,the spatial-temporal evolution are a significant increase in Shanghai,South-Jiangsu and a decline in some cities in Mid-Jiangsu,North-Jiangsu as well as Anhui province from 2000 to 2012,but a significant change of the population density growth among some underdeveloped cities from 2012 to 2018.3)The space panel regression of driving factors shows that under the‘Matthew effect’of population pattern evolution,the changes of driving factors are the enhancement of market power and the weakening of government influence,as well as the advancement of regional integration has also brought about the enhancement of spatial spillover effect.