赣江流域气象要素变化及径流响应关系

Changes of meteorological elements and runoff response in Ganjiang River Basin

以赣江流域为研究对象,通过线性倾向估计法、滑动平均法、非参数MK法、克拉默法等方法从空间分布、年平均、年代际、趋势和突变5个方面来分析流域内及周围19个气象站点的实测气温、降水、风速、相对湿度和日照时数在1960—2010年期间的变化情况及其与径流的响应关系。结果表明,近50年来,流域降水主要集中在流域的东南、西南和西北部,整体为不显著上升趋势,2002年发生突变;气温流域内东西分布不均,整体为显著上升,2000年发生突变;风速西北部向东南部递增,整体显著下降,1974—1978年发生突变;相对湿度主要位于流域西部和西北部,整体不显著下降,2008年发生突变;日照时数为西部和西北部递增到南部和东南部,显著下降,1981年发生突变。流域径流为不显著上升,2002年发生突变,降雨与径流相关性和关联度最大,是驱动径流变化的主要因子。

Taking Ganjiang River Basin as the research object,through linear tendency estimation,moving average method,nonparametric MK method,Kramer method etc.,we analyze the changes of measured temperature,precipitation,wind speed,relative humidity and sunshine hours of 19 meteorological stations around the watershed from 1960 to 2010 and their response relationship with runoff from five aspects,namely,spatial distribution,annual average,inter-decadal variation,trend and abrupt change.The results show that in the past 50 years,the precipitation is mainly concentrated in the southeast,southwest and northwest of this area,the overall trend is not rising obviously,and the abrupt change occurred in 2002;that the temperature distribution in this area is uneven,and the overall trend is rising significantly,and the abrupt change occurred in 2000;that the wind speed increases from northwest to the southeast,and the overall trend declines significantly,and the abrupt change occurred during 1974-1978;that the relative humidity occurs mainly in the west and northwest of this area,and the overall trend is not significantly decreasing;and that the sunshine hours are increasing from the south to the southeast in 2008.The runoff in this area does not significantly increase.In 2002,there was an abrupt change,and the correlation between rainfall and runoff was the largest,which was the main factor driving the change of runoff.