基于Logistic模型的我国上市公司退市风险预警研究

A Study on Delisting Risk Warning of Listed Companies in China Based on Logistic Model

从2003-2019年上市公司中筛选出40家^*ST公司与依次按照同行业、同年度和相似规模配比原则配比40家健康上市公司作为样本。从盈利能力、偿债能力、经营能力、成长能力、现金流量能力以及公司治理六个方面分析造成上市公司产生退市风险的相关因素,进而选取37个指示我国上市公司退市风险的风险指标。借助主成分分析法,精简指标,构建以Logistic回归模型为基础的退市风险预警模型。

40 ST companies and 40 healthy listed companies from 2003 to 2019,in the same industry,the same year and similar scale were selected as samples.This paper analyzes relevant factors of delisting risk of listed companies from six aspects of profitability,solvency,operation ability,growth ability,cash flow ability and corporate governance,and then selects 37 risk indicators indicating delisting risk of listed companies in China.Finally,with the help of principal component analysis,the indicators are simplified and the early-warning model of delisting risk based on logistic regression model is constructed.