基于创业板上市公司经验数据的业绩预告偏差、修正与企业内部控制缺陷研究

A Study on Performance Forecast Deviation,Correction and Defects of Enterprise's Internal Control based on the Experience Data of Gem Listed Companies

以2016—2017年我国深市创业板1062家上市公司作为研究样本,构建对数线性模型和二元Logistic回归模型,检验我国企业内部控制缺陷和业绩预告质量之间的关系。研究发现:企业内部控制存在缺陷会降低业绩预告信息的质量;在1%的显著性水平上,企业内部控制缺陷程度对业绩预告偏差存在正向影响,结果表明内部控制缺陷程度每上升1%水平,相对于实际业绩而言,业绩预告的偏差会增加高达63.3%;在10%的显著性水平上,企业内部控制缺陷程度与业绩修正的发生概率正相关。

Choosing 1062 listed companies on my country s Shenzhen Gem from 2016 to 2017 as a research sample,a logarithmic linear model and a two-element logistic regression model were constructed to test the relationship between internal control defects and performance forecast quality in Chinese enterprises.It is found that the defects of internal control in enterprises will reduce the quality of performance forecast.At significant level of 1%,the degree of internal control defect of the enterprise has a positive effect on the performance forecast deviation.The results show that for every 1%increase in the degree of internal control defects,the deviation of performance forecast will increase by as much as 63.3%relative to the actual performance.At significant level of 10%,the degree of internal control defects of an enterprise is positively correlated with the probability of the occurrence of performance correction.