气候变化对水电站发电出力的影响研究

Research on the Impacts of Climate Change on the Power Generation of Hydropower Station

气候变化使全球水循环、水资源分布状况发生了巨大改变,河川径流作为人类采用天然水资源、水能最主要的载体,其未来变化情况也深受气候变化影响,因此考虑未来气候变化,研究能够调节河川径流并提取水能的水电站的发电出力有着重要意义。本文以黄龙滩水电站为例,以全球气候模式(GCM)模拟结果作为未来气候情景,将降尺度处理后的气象要素输入SWAT模型以预测黄龙滩水电站未来(2020-2080年)入库流量序列,在与历史(1961-2017年)入库流量序列进行一致性分析后,根据水能计算推求不同来水条件下水电站保证出力与多年平均年发电量,进而分析气候变化对水库发电出力的影响。结果表明,气候变化下的未来入库流量与历史入库流量具有非一致性,历史、未来RCP4.5情景、未来RCP8.5情景下推求的黄龙滩水电站保证出力分别为5.98、5.26、4.82万kW;对应的黄龙滩水电站多年平均年发电量分别为7.43、7.79、7.31亿kWh。在气候变化的影响下,水库的入库流量不均性增加,降低了水电站的保证出力,给水电站的运行与调度带来了新的要求与挑战。

Climate change has greatly changed the water cycle and the distribution of water resources.River runoff,as an important carrier of human use of natural water resources and water energy,will also be affected by climate change in the future through the water cycle.Therefore,considering the future climate change,it is of great significance to study the generation capacity of hydropower stations which can regulate river runoff and extract water energy.This paper takes Huanglongtan Hydropower Plant as an example,setting the future climate change scenario by the global climate model(GCM)simulation results,the meteorological elements after downscaling treatment are input into SWAT hydrological model to predict the future(2020-2080)inflow flow series of Huanglongtan Reservoir.After the consistency analysis with the historical(1961-2017)inflow flow series,inflow scenarios are determined for water energy calculation.The guaranteed output and average annual power generation of hydropower stations are calculated,and then the impacts of climate change on the power generation of reservoirs are also analyzed.The results show that the future inflow and the historical inflow under the climate change are inconsistent.The guaranteed outputs of Huanglongtan Hydropower Plant under the the future RCP4.5 scenario and the future RCP8.5 scenario are 59800,52600 and 48200 kW respectively,while its annual average power generation are 743 million,779 million and 731 million kWh respectively.The impacts of climate change on the discrete degree of reservoir inflow flow increases,which reduces the guaranteed output of hydropower stations,and brings new requirements and challenges to the operation of hydropower stations.